In a meeting in New Delhi, Indian officials and their Russian counterparts discussed, among others, collaboration on the training of Indian sailors for polar navigation, joint shipbuilding projects, and the development of the Northern Sea Route (NSR). For this, Indian stakeholders will collaborate with Rosatom, Russia’s state nuclear energy corporation specialising in high-tech nuclear products.

This comes after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Moscow for the 22nd India-Russia Bilateral Summit in July, where both parties agreed on building “new architecture of stable and efficient transport corridors”. The recent pronouncements have brought the Arctic to the spotlight as a geopolitical chessboard where key actors, including India and Russia, are advancing their interests and claims. However, as the Arctic garners global attention, it has also sparked debates over the conceivable geopolitical rivalries in a fragile ecosystem facing existential threats from global warming and climate change.

Locating the Arctic in Global Geostrategy and Geo-economy The Arctic is the frozen landmass that lies above the Arctic Circle and is surrounded by eight countries, including Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, the US, and Russia. Owing to its influence on planet Earth’s atmospheric and oceanographic cycles, the region is a critical and high-priority area of research for the scientific community. It is estimated to be home to approximately 13 per cent of the world’s undiscovered crude oil, 30 per cent of natural gas, and a rich source of rare earth minerals (REM).

As the region remains covered by thick ice for most of the year, it has remained unexplored. However, as an effect of global warming, Arctic ice is receding faster than any other region in the world. NASA reported that the decadal rate of ice loss in the Arctic Sea is 12.6 per cent. The melting ice is unfolding a new route called the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in the Arctic, linking the Atlantic and the Pacific that will transform global trade forever, shifting the flow of cargo and saving time and cost of freight. When operational, it would take 18 days for a Chinese cargo shipment from Shanghai to reach Hamburg via the Bering Strait, compared to 35 days taken via Suez. It will reduce the route length from Japan to Europe by half, providing a breakthrough alternative to the traditional Malacca and Suez.

However, the new Arctic route is not without its complications and is critical in reshaping geopolitical rivalry. The route is non-navigable through long winters and navigable for a short summer period of about two to four months, extending roughly from July to October, depending on the specific route, weather, and ice thickness. Nevertheless, international cargo shipment on the new route increased exponentially from 41,000 tonnes in 2010 to 2,85,000 tonnes in 2019, only to be halted in 2022 due to the Russia-Ukraine war causing concerns among the shipping companies and Western sanctions. Some projections of Icebreaker technology suggest the potential for year-round navigation for vessels if escorted by icebreakers. This might be a eureka moment for the frozen Arctic and Arctic nations.

Russia’s Arctic Ambitions and Geopolitical Rivalry

Russia shares the largest, 24,000 km, coastline with the Arctic Ocean and has infrastructure to harness its potential. Compared to other Arctic nations, it places Russia in an advantageous position to benefit the most. With an unparalleled icebreaker fleet, outpacing the US and Canada, Russia enjoys an upper hand with its diesel-powered and world’s only nuclear-powered icebreakers. It has aggressively increased hydrocarbon resource exploration activities, which constitute a major pillar of the Russian economy. It is also ambitiously working on the NSR, supporting it with a heavy infrastructure network of container ports, railways, roads, and air connectivity.

It can be a game-changer for Russia, given its geolocation and the required technological prowess. In addition to icebreakers and ships, significant developments include the expansion of Murmansk ports in the west and Vladivostok in the east, the construction of railways to connect Perm Krai to the ports of Arkhangelsk and Indiga, laying a 12,600 km fibre optic cable to improve internet connectivity throughout the region, and the enhancement of civilian airports such as Amderma and Pevek.

However, Russia’s economy, ridden under Western sanctions, necessitates heavy investments to pace up its sluggish infrastructural development. Given that seven of the eight nations in the Arctic Council are members of NATO, Russia perceives their presence as a plausible threat to its territorial security. Thus, to accelerate its venture, Moscow is seeking partnerships with non-Arctic countries, especially China and India. Moreover, under the aegis of the Eastern Economic Forum, Russia is keenly attracting countries, including India, to invest in its Far East, which will support its connectivity to the NSR.

In recent years, China, which does not share a direct border with the Arctic, has increased its presence under its Arctic Policy 2018, calling for a “win-win polar partnership” for mutual benefits. It also declared to build a “Polar Silk Road” as a northern extension of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) that would help Beijing bypass the Indo-Pacific route and the Suez to considerably shorten transit time and distance to Europe.

These developments have sparked havoc in the Western bloc of a probable future Russian monopoly and influence in the Arctic region. The US, Canada, and Finland have formed an ICE Pact (Icebreaker Collaboration Effort), an initiative announced at the NATO summit in Washington, to counter Sino-Russian dominance and their “no-limit” partnership. This year, the US also released its Arctic Policy 2024, aiming to boost its activities in the Arctic and collaborate with its NATO allies, indicating greater geopolitical competition over the North Pole. India’s Strategic Interests in the Arctic India entered the Arctic theatre in 1920 by signing the Svalbard Treaty of Paris and, until recently, confined its role mainly to scientific research and expeditions, establishing research centres like the Himadri. However, Delhi has lately taken a dynamic stance under its newly unveiled Arctic Policy, 2022. Delhi sees the Arctic from a multidimensional point of view, with the latter being a lucrative region for resource exploration, including oil, gas, and rare earth minerals and the development of NSR. It makes engagement and investment in the Northern Sea Route paramount, given India’s bid to develop the Chennai-Vladivostok Eastern Maritime Corridor and diversify its energy security. Apart from providing seamless connectivity to Europe, it will provide India access to uninterrupted energy supplies from Russia, such as coal, LNGs, fertilisers, etc. It will also reduce India’s overdependence on the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, which are vulnerable to regional conflicts such as Houthis in recent times.

Moreover, India’s entry into this region is of enormous importance in countering Chinese expansionism and the anxieties it is causing among Arctic nations, including Russia. Invitation to a time-tested friend, India, to invest and actively engage in its Far East and North explains Russia’s balancing vis-a-vis China. It also provides avenues for both countries to meet their aspiration for a bilateral trade target of $100 billion by 2030.

Additionally, Chinese over-presence and ambitions with the Belt and Road Initiative, as well as its self-identification as a “near-Arctic state”, have also raised concerns about sovereignty and security, including financial stability in the region. Analysing its previous record of failed partnerships in railway connectivity between Kirkenes (Norway) and Finland and mining projects of uranium and gold in Greenland and Canada, respectively. The Western reaction is coming primarily in the backdrop of increasing Sino-Russian dominance and Western sanctions in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war. This further provides India with opportunities to explore its strategic role and become a major stakeholder in the region.

Thus, as the ice melts and icebreaking technology advances, the future holds immense possibilities for the Arctic and the NSR. In an unfolding but uncertain order, India’s approach should be of strategic pragmatism, multilateralism, and rule-based governance in the ecologically fragile Arctic region. While balancing China and strengthening its partnership with Russia, India can navigate its role in resource exploration and mining, strengthening maritime security and climate research, and promoting international cooperation as a responsible stakeholder. Furthermore, the new route may not be fruitful in the short run but can be a critical pathway in years to come; therefore, it compellingly requires long-term investments, particularly when Moscow is under Western sanctions and China is expanding its portfolio. However, while the new route reduces the time, distance, and cost of transit, it also brings challenges not only of geopolitical rivalries but also of greater concern, ie, climate change. This Arctic venture, coupled with global warming, has an environmental cost that requires all concerned stakeholders to come to a policy consensus wherein adherence to the sustainable use of Arctic resources should be above all else.

Asif Haseen and Monalisa Dash

Firstpost